European windfarms will grow ten-fold by 2020; solar PV to increase 45 times

From ReFocus Weekly

Europe could source 34% of electricity from renewables by 2020, says analysis
UTRECHT, The Netherlands, October 5, 2005 (Refocus Weekly) Power generation from windfarms in Europe will grow at least ten-fold by 2020, while output from solar PV will increase 45 times, according to an analysis of the continental green power market.

Wind will grow from 34 TWh in 2001 to 385 TWH in 2020 under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, but would reach 461 TWH under a scenario that models the future evolution based on the currently available best practice strategies of the EU-25 states, predicts ‘FORRES 2020.’ The analysis was produced by a number of groups, including Fraunhofer ISI, EEG, ECOFYS, KEMA and REC.

Photovoltaic would increase from 0.2 TWH to 8.8 TWH under BAU and 17.9 TWH under the policy scenario, while solar thermal electric would grow from nothing in 2001 to 12.7 and 21.7 TWH, respectively. Wave and tidal power would go from 0 to 8.4 or 33.2, geothermal would go from 6.3 to 7.5 or 8.2, biomass and biogas would go from 37 to 141 or 338, while small-scale hydro would go from 38 TWH in 2001 to 44.3 TWH in 2020 under BAU or 48.4 TWH under the policy scenario.

Total supply of green power among the 25 countries would increase from 403 TWH to 900 TWH under BAU or 1,234 TWH under the policy scenario. Total power demand will increase from 2,960 TWH in 2001 to 4,009 or 3,583 TWH respectively, meaning that green power will rise from 13.6% of demand in 2001, to 22.5% of demand under business as usual, or 34.4% under the policy scenario.

The share of 34% from green power and 20% of primary energy is feasible by 2020 but it requires “immediate policy actions in most member states,” the report concludes. Green power would reduce CO2 emissions from the 25 countries by 290 Mt under business as usual (compared with 2001 emissions), but this reduction could be another 350 Mt higher under the policy scenario.

The difference between the two scenarios represents more than half of the EU-25 commitment under the Kyoto protocol in the period from 1990 to 2010.

Greater efforts in energy efficiency are also required to achieve the green power targets for 2010 and to define ambitious targets for 2020, the report concludes.

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