Professor Thomas Homer-Dixon on urgency of global warming
Globe and Mail Update
November 30, 2007 at 3:41 PM EST
Global warming is "an emergency unlike anything humankind has ever faced before," Prof. Thomas Homer-Dixon argued Saturday in his Globe essay The sequel to Kyoto
"A few years ago, scientists regarded global warming as a matter of serious concern," he wrote.
"Now many appear to think that it's a matter of grave urgency — that we may be running out of time . . .
"Climate scientists are now beginning to discuss a topic that only two years ago many fervently hoped they'd never have to discuss — geoengineering, or the intentional human modification of the planet's climate to arrest or slow global warming.
Prof. Thomas Homer-Dixon
Prof. Thomas Homer-Dixon
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The Globe and Mail
"Geoengineering would involve, for example, putting sulphates aerosols into the atmosphere or putting mirrors into space to try to block a fraction of incoming solar radiation.
"Today the topic is at the margins of the public-policy dialogue about climate change.
"But I expect it will be at the centre of public discussion within five years.
"In 10 years, we will see demands from some segments of the public and many opinion leaders that we carry out geoengineering.
"And we'll probably start doing it within 20 years, likely when it becomes apparent that the Greenland ice sheet is starting to collapse."
Whether you agree or not, it's a provocative argument and we are pleased that Prof. Homer-Dixon will be online Wednesday from 11 a.m. to noon EST to take your questions on this essay and on global warming.
Prof. Thomas Homer-Dixon holds the George Ignatieff Chair of Peace and Conflict Studies at the Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies at University College, University of Toronto.
He was born in Victoria and received his B.A. in political science from Carleton University in 1980 and his Ph.D. from MIT in international relations and defense and arms control policy in 1989.
He then moved to the University of Toronto to lead several research projects studying the links between environmental stress and violence in developing countries.
Recently, his research has focused on threats to global security in the 21st century and on how societies adapt to complex economic, ecological, and technological change.
Showing posts with label global warming effects. Show all posts
Showing posts with label global warming effects. Show all posts
Sunday, December 02, 2007
YouTube Global warming Tutorial makes science teacher a web star
U.S. science teacher is a Web sensation
December 02, 2007
Francine Kopun, TheStar.com Feature Writer
The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See contains no fake blood, vampires, creepy talking dolls or spooks hiding in television sets. It's a 10-minute lecture on global warming, delivered by a high school science teacher from Oregon, and it has swept the Web, generating millions of hits on multiple sites.
It's low-tech, low-quality and low-budget – Greg Craven, a 38-year-old father of two, shot it himself at his home in Monmouth, Ore., hopped up on Red Bull and Little Caesars pizza.
"It's my midlife crisis and my magnum opus, and my nervous breakdown and my enlightenment experience all rolled into one," he says.
Armed with a black marker and a whiteboard, Craven made an academic argument that went viral after he posted it on YouTube in June, generating nearly 3 million hits on the site. It now ranks among the most popular videos in the news and politics category.
"It's a classic example of how everyday people can help change the world," says Graham Saul, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada.
Craven wants to be the man behind the pebble that starts the landslide that ends in an avalanche change in public opinion, and he's already paid a price to be that man.
After completing his first video, he sifted through 5,000 critical comments to come up with a revised video, called How It All Ends, which links to five hours of explanatory videos.
In them, Craven dons a series of pointy hats and casually sets chemicals on fire in a lab to spice up his discussion, which combines science and risk-management theory to argue that what's needed now is nothing less than a change in public policy to combat global warming.
During the months it took him to produce the package, his wife, Jodi Coleman, 37, took their two girls, ages 2 and 3, to visit relatives for a week at a time, so Craven could work undisturbed.
"I entered this weird haze. My relationship with sleep changed. I would sleep when I could no longer function, and I would sleep for an hour so that I could function again. Then I'd get back up," says Craven.
He suffered the symptoms of what he feared might be a heart attack and drove himself to the emergency room at the local hospital. It was stress.
He spent $400 on energy drinks and another couple of hundred on pizza and McDonald's $1 cheeseburgers. He filmed the segments at home with a camera on a tripod and his Mac.
"He was definitely following his passion," says his wife, a former primary school teacher who quit to stay at home with the kids. "He is the world's most doting father and loves being with his kids more than anything in the world. He did it so that their world would be a better place, and I understood that."
Craven applied his considerable teaching ability to the project, drawing viewers in with a frank and charmingly mild-mannered delivery. "What if I told you I think I've found an argument that makes that whole bitter question of whether it's really happening or not, moot," he asks, peering into the camera.
He was inspired in part, by one of his online heroes – a Brooklyn blogger called Ze Frank, who started a Web sensation in 2001 by sending a party invitation featuring a series of hilarious dance moves to 17 friends. After it went viral, Frank quit his day job to build up his Web site and spent a year doing a daily three-minute show that drew 10,000 viewers a day.
Craven says an agent has contacted him to discuss a possible book. But he doesn't want to spend any more time developing projects for the Web – he says it's time for him to turn his attention back to his wife and children. He hopes others will pick up where he has left off.
"We need as many information warriors out there as we can get."
December 02, 2007
Francine Kopun, TheStar.com Feature Writer
The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See contains no fake blood, vampires, creepy talking dolls or spooks hiding in television sets. It's a 10-minute lecture on global warming, delivered by a high school science teacher from Oregon, and it has swept the Web, generating millions of hits on multiple sites.
It's low-tech, low-quality and low-budget – Greg Craven, a 38-year-old father of two, shot it himself at his home in Monmouth, Ore., hopped up on Red Bull and Little Caesars pizza.
"It's my midlife crisis and my magnum opus, and my nervous breakdown and my enlightenment experience all rolled into one," he says.
Armed with a black marker and a whiteboard, Craven made an academic argument that went viral after he posted it on YouTube in June, generating nearly 3 million hits on the site. It now ranks among the most popular videos in the news and politics category.
"It's a classic example of how everyday people can help change the world," says Graham Saul, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada.
Craven wants to be the man behind the pebble that starts the landslide that ends in an avalanche change in public opinion, and he's already paid a price to be that man.
After completing his first video, he sifted through 5,000 critical comments to come up with a revised video, called How It All Ends, which links to five hours of explanatory videos.
In them, Craven dons a series of pointy hats and casually sets chemicals on fire in a lab to spice up his discussion, which combines science and risk-management theory to argue that what's needed now is nothing less than a change in public policy to combat global warming.
During the months it took him to produce the package, his wife, Jodi Coleman, 37, took their two girls, ages 2 and 3, to visit relatives for a week at a time, so Craven could work undisturbed.
"I entered this weird haze. My relationship with sleep changed. I would sleep when I could no longer function, and I would sleep for an hour so that I could function again. Then I'd get back up," says Craven.
He suffered the symptoms of what he feared might be a heart attack and drove himself to the emergency room at the local hospital. It was stress.
He spent $400 on energy drinks and another couple of hundred on pizza and McDonald's $1 cheeseburgers. He filmed the segments at home with a camera on a tripod and his Mac.
"He was definitely following his passion," says his wife, a former primary school teacher who quit to stay at home with the kids. "He is the world's most doting father and loves being with his kids more than anything in the world. He did it so that their world would be a better place, and I understood that."
Craven applied his considerable teaching ability to the project, drawing viewers in with a frank and charmingly mild-mannered delivery. "What if I told you I think I've found an argument that makes that whole bitter question of whether it's really happening or not, moot," he asks, peering into the camera.
He was inspired in part, by one of his online heroes – a Brooklyn blogger called Ze Frank, who started a Web sensation in 2001 by sending a party invitation featuring a series of hilarious dance moves to 17 friends. After it went viral, Frank quit his day job to build up his Web site and spent a year doing a daily three-minute show that drew 10,000 viewers a day.
Craven says an agent has contacted him to discuss a possible book. But he doesn't want to spend any more time developing projects for the Web – he says it's time for him to turn his attention back to his wife and children. He hopes others will pick up where he has left off.
"We need as many information warriors out there as we can get."
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Branson plans on being aviation's clean fuel pioneer
Virgin founder Richard Branson – a true philanthropist – shares philosophy on giving, hosts charity gala, promotes ecologival ventures
Sandro Contenta, Feature Writer, TheStar.com
Richard Branson insists there's method to his madness.
Sure, he has crash-landed hot air balloons and jumped off a 40-storey building – all in the name of publicizing his Virgin Group business empire. But he says the self-described "mad escapades" have helped amass the kind of phenomenal wealth needed to make a positive difference worldwide.
"If capitalism is not going to be given a bad name, it's up to successful capitalists to make sure that they use that wealth constructively," Branson said in an interview yesterday.
At 57, Branson is turning his thoughts to a legacy beyond having built the largest group of private companies in Europe. Like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, two of the world's richest men, Branson has decided to focus part of his energy and fortune on philanthropy.
Last night, he hosted a fundraising gala in Toronto for his charitable organization, Virgin Unite, which helps local groups battle challenges such as poverty, access to health care and global warming. Funds from the event went to support a project dubbed Heaven's Angels. It provides motorcycles to African caregivers, helping them reach communities that are difficult to access.
Another initiative is to set up a "war room" in South Africa to examine hundreds of non-governmental projects across Africa to determine and publicize "best practices," such as the best way to fight malaria.
But the British entrepreneur couldn't help mixing business with philanthropy.
Earlier in the day, he used high-profile magician Criss Angel – in town mainly to perform at the gala – to promote Virgin Mobile's entry next year in the contract-based cellphone business.
Indeed, Branson makes clear that what's good for the environment and social justice is also good for business.
"For customers who come into contact with Virgin, they will view Virgin better if we're using our resources in a positive way than a negative way," he said.
The swashbuckling entrepreneur's rise to riches has been well documented. A dyslexic who dropped out of high school at 16, he launched a magazine for young people that sold 75,000 copies an issue.
He used the money to set up a record company – Virgin, a name that reflected his inexperience in business.
The first artist he signed, Mike Oldfield, produced Tubular Bells, an album that made the record label an overnight success and later became the soundtrack to the movie The Exorcist.
Branson built an empire of more than 250 companies running everything from trains to space travel. In 2006, Forbes magazine estimated his net worth at $2.8 billion (U.S.).
Branson, who owns an island in the Caribbean, won't say what that fortune is today.
Virtually all the wealth, he said, is tied up and reinvested in companies he doesn't plan to sell.
"Yes, if I sold everything I would have an embarrassing amount of riches in a bank account, but personally I think that would be almost a sin," he said, sipping a low-fat latte at a King St. W. club.
Once described by a close aide as "ruthlessly capitalist in business but socially communist," Branson said he'd rather put his money to work toward an ideal.
"I think communism is definitely an ideal. It would be wonderful if communism worked, but it's been proven not to work," he said.
"But the idea of everybody being able to have food, and everybody being able to have medical help, and everyone being able to live roughly equal lives, makes sense."
Sir Richard – he was knighted in 2000 – has been criticized by environmentalists for proclaiming global warming the most pressing challenge today, yet running airlines that contribute to it.
Branson said he only became aware of global warming about four years ago.
"By then I owned five airlines in the world, a train company and a space company," he said. "I know that if I sold those companies somebody else would operate them."
Branson said he came up with a better solution by pledging to commit all profits from his Virgin air and train companies over the next decade – an estimated $3 billion (U.S.) – to tackle climate change. The money will go into one of his newer companies, Virgin Fuel, which is researching alternatives to oil-based fuels, such as sugar-based ethanol.
Virgin will partly use "clean fuel" to test-fly a 747 airplane next year, without passengers, Branson said.
"I hope within five years all our planes will be flying on clean fuels, not dirty fuels, so people who own airlines won't have to feel guilty and people who fly on airlines won't have to feel guilty," he said.
Alternative Energy Stocks Website
Sandro Contenta, Feature Writer, TheStar.com
Richard Branson insists there's method to his madness.
Sure, he has crash-landed hot air balloons and jumped off a 40-storey building – all in the name of publicizing his Virgin Group business empire. But he says the self-described "mad escapades" have helped amass the kind of phenomenal wealth needed to make a positive difference worldwide.
"If capitalism is not going to be given a bad name, it's up to successful capitalists to make sure that they use that wealth constructively," Branson said in an interview yesterday.
At 57, Branson is turning his thoughts to a legacy beyond having built the largest group of private companies in Europe. Like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, two of the world's richest men, Branson has decided to focus part of his energy and fortune on philanthropy.
Last night, he hosted a fundraising gala in Toronto for his charitable organization, Virgin Unite, which helps local groups battle challenges such as poverty, access to health care and global warming. Funds from the event went to support a project dubbed Heaven's Angels. It provides motorcycles to African caregivers, helping them reach communities that are difficult to access.
Another initiative is to set up a "war room" in South Africa to examine hundreds of non-governmental projects across Africa to determine and publicize "best practices," such as the best way to fight malaria.
But the British entrepreneur couldn't help mixing business with philanthropy.
Earlier in the day, he used high-profile magician Criss Angel – in town mainly to perform at the gala – to promote Virgin Mobile's entry next year in the contract-based cellphone business.
Indeed, Branson makes clear that what's good for the environment and social justice is also good for business.
"For customers who come into contact with Virgin, they will view Virgin better if we're using our resources in a positive way than a negative way," he said.
The swashbuckling entrepreneur's rise to riches has been well documented. A dyslexic who dropped out of high school at 16, he launched a magazine for young people that sold 75,000 copies an issue.
He used the money to set up a record company – Virgin, a name that reflected his inexperience in business.
The first artist he signed, Mike Oldfield, produced Tubular Bells, an album that made the record label an overnight success and later became the soundtrack to the movie The Exorcist.
Branson built an empire of more than 250 companies running everything from trains to space travel. In 2006, Forbes magazine estimated his net worth at $2.8 billion (U.S.).
Branson, who owns an island in the Caribbean, won't say what that fortune is today.
Virtually all the wealth, he said, is tied up and reinvested in companies he doesn't plan to sell.
"Yes, if I sold everything I would have an embarrassing amount of riches in a bank account, but personally I think that would be almost a sin," he said, sipping a low-fat latte at a King St. W. club.
Once described by a close aide as "ruthlessly capitalist in business but socially communist," Branson said he'd rather put his money to work toward an ideal.
"I think communism is definitely an ideal. It would be wonderful if communism worked, but it's been proven not to work," he said.
"But the idea of everybody being able to have food, and everybody being able to have medical help, and everyone being able to live roughly equal lives, makes sense."
Sir Richard – he was knighted in 2000 – has been criticized by environmentalists for proclaiming global warming the most pressing challenge today, yet running airlines that contribute to it.
Branson said he only became aware of global warming about four years ago.
"By then I owned five airlines in the world, a train company and a space company," he said. "I know that if I sold those companies somebody else would operate them."
Branson said he came up with a better solution by pledging to commit all profits from his Virgin air and train companies over the next decade – an estimated $3 billion (U.S.) – to tackle climate change. The money will go into one of his newer companies, Virgin Fuel, which is researching alternatives to oil-based fuels, such as sugar-based ethanol.
Virgin will partly use "clean fuel" to test-fly a 747 airplane next year, without passengers, Branson said.
"I hope within five years all our planes will be flying on clean fuels, not dirty fuels, so people who own airlines won't have to feel guilty and people who fly on airlines won't have to feel guilty," he said.
Alternative Energy Stocks Website
United Nations says act now or expect worsening impact or warming
Top climate experts say global warming effects already being seen; US and China urged to lead
Peter Gorrie
Environment Reporter, The Star.com
Without urgent, aggressive steps to stop greenhouse gas emissions, climate change will cause devastating heat waves, floods, starvation and disease, says a report written by the world's top climate scientists and endorsed by 140 nations yesterday.
Environment Minister John Baird immediately welcomed the document, from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Canada, like the rest of the world, needs to take immediate action," he said in a written statement.
But critics said the minister and the rest of the Conservative government still pay lip service to the problem while promoting a plan that would make it worse.
"The government is acting to protect industry and its shareholders instead of the planet and future generations," said John Bennett, of Ottawa-based ClimateforChange.
Impacts have already begun, declares a 23-page summary of thousands of pages of scientific evidence.
Without action, human activity could lead to "abrupt and irreversible changes" that make Earth unrecognizable.
As early as 2020, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will suffer water shortages, while residents of Asia's megacities will be at great risk of river and coastal flooding.
The new report is the fourth and final statement this year from the panel – the roughly 2,000 scientists who assess research on the rapid increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere.
It draws conclusions from the previous three documents and sets the stage for next month's UN conference in Bali, Indonesia, where governments are supposed to resolve how to set targets for emission cuts after 2012, when the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol ends.
Climate change imperils "the most precious treasures of our planet," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said in Valencia, Spain, where, in five days of often-tense negotiations, governments haggled over the summary's wording.
Ban urged the United States and China – the two biggest greenhouse gas sources – to do more.
Panel reports, issued every five years for the past two decades, tend to be conservative.
This one, though, is stark and urgent.
"If there's no action before 2012, that's too late," said Rajendra Pachauri, a scientist and economist who heads the IPCC.
"What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.''
Yvo de Boer, the UN's top climate change official, said what's new is the clarity of the scientific message, adding that, while the report isn't binding, "The politicians have no excuse not to act."
"The timing of this report couldn't be better," Baird said in his statement.
"Canada has been a leader in bringing the world together... and we will continue that work in Bali."
But critics said his plan – which rejects absolute emission caps – would let Canada's greenhouse emissions grow with the economy.
The panel says emissions must fall at least 25 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 to prevent catastrophic impacts. Canada's target is a 20 per cent cut below 2006 levels by 2020 – which if achieved would still leave us slightly above our 1990 total.
But many say the Conservatives' proposals aren't capable of hitting even that weak target.
"The government is not acting on the science," said Matthew Bramley, of the Pembina Institute.
"They're trumpeting bogus targets as if they're meaningful," said Green Party Leader Elizabeth May.
"I'd believe John Baird if he came out with a plan that includes things like a carbon tax and a moratorium on growth in (Alberta's) tar sands."
Peter Gorrie
Environment Reporter, The Star.com
Without urgent, aggressive steps to stop greenhouse gas emissions, climate change will cause devastating heat waves, floods, starvation and disease, says a report written by the world's top climate scientists and endorsed by 140 nations yesterday.
Environment Minister John Baird immediately welcomed the document, from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Canada, like the rest of the world, needs to take immediate action," he said in a written statement.
But critics said the minister and the rest of the Conservative government still pay lip service to the problem while promoting a plan that would make it worse.
"The government is acting to protect industry and its shareholders instead of the planet and future generations," said John Bennett, of Ottawa-based ClimateforChange.
Impacts have already begun, declares a 23-page summary of thousands of pages of scientific evidence.
Without action, human activity could lead to "abrupt and irreversible changes" that make Earth unrecognizable.
As early as 2020, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will suffer water shortages, while residents of Asia's megacities will be at great risk of river and coastal flooding.
The new report is the fourth and final statement this year from the panel – the roughly 2,000 scientists who assess research on the rapid increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere.
It draws conclusions from the previous three documents and sets the stage for next month's UN conference in Bali, Indonesia, where governments are supposed to resolve how to set targets for emission cuts after 2012, when the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol ends.
Climate change imperils "the most precious treasures of our planet," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said in Valencia, Spain, where, in five days of often-tense negotiations, governments haggled over the summary's wording.
Ban urged the United States and China – the two biggest greenhouse gas sources – to do more.
Panel reports, issued every five years for the past two decades, tend to be conservative.
This one, though, is stark and urgent.
"If there's no action before 2012, that's too late," said Rajendra Pachauri, a scientist and economist who heads the IPCC.
"What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.''
Yvo de Boer, the UN's top climate change official, said what's new is the clarity of the scientific message, adding that, while the report isn't binding, "The politicians have no excuse not to act."
"The timing of this report couldn't be better," Baird said in his statement.
"Canada has been a leader in bringing the world together... and we will continue that work in Bali."
But critics said his plan – which rejects absolute emission caps – would let Canada's greenhouse emissions grow with the economy.
The panel says emissions must fall at least 25 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 to prevent catastrophic impacts. Canada's target is a 20 per cent cut below 2006 levels by 2020 – which if achieved would still leave us slightly above our 1990 total.
But many say the Conservatives' proposals aren't capable of hitting even that weak target.
"The government is not acting on the science," said Matthew Bramley, of the Pembina Institute.
"They're trumpeting bogus targets as if they're meaningful," said Green Party Leader Elizabeth May.
"I'd believe John Baird if he came out with a plan that includes things like a carbon tax and a moratorium on growth in (Alberta's) tar sands."
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