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Saturday, May 24, 2008

Israel in the post-Bush era; PM Livni then and now

If the current Israeli PM falls any further in the public eye, it is likely that Tzipi Livni will be the interim PM, and it could happen as early as this summer. She will be in a position to transition the Israel-USA relationship from President Bush to President Obama. As her thoughtful, balanced approach to security and peace are likely to mesh nicely with Obama's "diplomacy first" attitude, even a lame duck Bush administration could cause her some problems in the latter half of the year. Let's hope and pray that Cheney and others decide that the remaining months should be devoted to promoting peace and stability, as a way to foreshadow the success of the next administration and thus include the Bush legacy in the process. If they resist her efforts to promote dialogue and peace with all regional partners, it will make it more difficult for her politically, but any friction will be perceived as temporary, with the Democrat's poll numbers indicating that a positive Livni-Obama relationship could secure the American - Israeli friendship for another 4 to 8 years.

These are progressive leaders who can bring meaningful truces and longterm peace agreements to the region, thus making the entire world more peaceful and prosperous.

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Monday, May 12, 2008

Is Oil getting toppy in 2008? Yes, it would seem so ...

If Oil Drops, many Solar, Wind, Biofuel and Geothermal energy stocks will take hits

As the fool who ten years ago told a roomful of analysts and portfolio managers that though our fiduciary and legal duties were being met by our diligence in assessing Y2K risks, a much more crucial factor to the success of the companies we followed was the savviness of their web strategies, I feel historically qualified (like the racehorse with "back class") to prognosticate on the peak price of oil.

Yes, we're talking peak oil, but perhaps not in the crisis way many imagine. I am suggesting that it is probable that the oil price in this cycle will peak in spring / summer 2008. If there are any further spikes, related to perceived shortages or Middle Eastern violence, start selling a few days later and begin the process of underweighting the sector.



Events could cause things to reverse sooner, but if the upward spike trend continues, anything in the 140 to 150 range is poison-tipped and seemingly unsustainable. If oil falls to $60 and then rebounds to 90 before settling in to a trading range around 70 to 80, alternative energy stocks will also take it on the chin and begin one of the wildest rides in the history of stock trading. The leading solar companies already foreshadowed this in 2008, when some names that had been hit hard rallied back a few weeks later, rising 30% to 40% in one day. Still, even if oil were to drop from 125-130 down to 80 or 90, many solar, wind, biofuel and geothermal energy stocks will take hits of 20 to 60%, creating short to medium term pricing and liquidity problems, but clear longer-term opportunity.

It is likely that some renewable power stocks will continue to fall even after oil has corrected,but the names with better fundamentals will likely recover based on their internal, fundamental growth prospects. For a medium risk investor, one may want to start dollar cost averaging investments into alternative energy funds after any oil correction, and if a severe one ensues, increase the amount being invested as the fund values decline. The vast majority of quality clean energy investments are actually more directly related to preventing global warming than they are to the price of oil, yet near term trading will be highly affected by crude oil pricing.

Why do I feel oil is topping? It comes down to a gut feeling that either China, the USA and many more world economies all collapse, or the price of oil goes down. I'd bet on the latter. This means that those heavily overweighted in any type of energy investments may be in for a wild ride, and as the coming weeks are offering profit-taking options, the autumn and winter may bring some value back into play.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Bob Marley and DOA; Reggae Legend remembered, Punk Icons Drive On

Rebel Music means a Punky Reggae Party





Photo by Daniel X





Today marks the 27th anniversary of the passing of the world acclaimed reggae legend, Robert Nester Marley, popularly known as Bob Marley and known to his Rasta Brethren as Berhane Sellassie, or Light of the Trinity. Praise be to Jah, Give Thanks for Bob and all the musical saints and prophets for our lifetime. Peace and Blessings to the family, friends and fans of Bob globally.

Last night I had the pure pleasure of seeing DOA on their 30th Anniversary Tour, at the Horseshoe Tavern in Toronto, with opening acts The 3-Tards and The Glass Assassins. Both opening acts blew the roof off the place, setting it up perfectly for the Vancouver punk pioneers.

With Randy Rampage back in the fold, DOA thrashes and crashes out their power rock as forcefully and as fast as they did in the late 70s and early 80s, and their influence on music and the world goes far beyond their sales numbers. Considered here to be with The Ramones, The Sex Pistols and The Clash among the four pillars of punk, DOA have always been the flavour of choice among underground hard core punk fans.

Long before bands like Green Day, Blink 182, Rage Against The Machine and Linkin Park popularized the modern punk style, DOA were driving across the globe playing concerts including social and environmental protests. They were the first punk band to play behind the Iron Curtain, Nirvana's first gig was opening for DOA and Kurt and Courtney even met at a DOA show!



DOA hit the stage with their usual wall-of-sound blast and mixed new tracks with time-proven anthems such as The Enemy, Disco Sucks and Fuck You to present an hour of the heaviest, most-fun music you will ever hear. 28 years ago I remember someone at the Cabana Room telling DOA's manager Ken Lester that they were having a "religious experience" watching DOA, and I am positive there were DOA newbies at the Show last night that now feel things deeper and understand music in a more powerful and profound way. Long live Joe Keithley and DOA, legends of rock!!!



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Thursday, May 08, 2008

2008 Presidential Race, Obama versus McCain; the fat lady is humming the intro

Peeps,

Unless thee are among inumerati, it has been clear that the heavy gal has been clearing her throat for weeks and the audience, though anticipating the answer, was still becoming anxious for resolution and clarity and the commencement of the real battle.

The band is flowing like a river, and the beautiful blessed Lady Diva is humming the melody of a song we dearly love.

Peace 2 All,

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