Israel and Lebanon in UN Middle East Peace Plan

Ramifications of Lebanon conflict deepen

article from: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/detail.asp?GRP=I&id=87760

2006/8/12

By John J. Metzler PARIS, Special to The China Post

Lebanon's imbroglio deepens. Militarily, the Israeli offensive to seek and destroy the Hezbollah terrorists has not delivered the quick knockout punch as expected. The Hezbollah militias who started the conflict have proven resilient and have acquired prestige in the Arab world. Syria gains stature as a regional power. Islamic Iran profits from the conflict as it provides a diversion from Teheran's nuclear proliferation. And tragically the Lebanese people are caught in the middle.

Diplomatic solutions to settle the Lebanon's deepening conflict have become more complicated as initial Franco/American cooperation in the United Nations Security Council appears to have stalled. Pressures from the Lebanese government as well as much of the Arab world calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Israeli offensive seem to have swayed the French.

The original U.N. draft resolution spoke of an end to hostilities but without a specific timeframe. Now reflecting Middle Eastern opinion, President Jacques Chirac has put the U.S. on notice that a resolution calling for anything less than an "immediate ceasefire" was "immoral."

Israel sees the situation in Lebanon as "a strategic nightmare," cites former Lebanese Premier Amine Gemayel in an interview with the French daily Le Figaro who adds, "Israel looks at the issue only from a plan of strict geographic security and many countries take the same approach. It forgets the national dimension of the Lebanese problem, it forgets the Lebanese Republic with its democratic institutions and democratic values. France is a country who understands well the considerations in this crisis."

According to Le Figaro, "France plays a key role in finding a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon, but is not able despite its tandem with the U.S. to impose a ceasefire." All the fine points of agreement were well received in Israel but rejected in Lebanon the Arab countries and Russia.

Keeping Franco/American entente in the Security Council rather than allowing these divisions to beach the resolution on the sandbar of political semantics remains vital.

While Washington has pressed for an international peacekeeping force to separate the antagonists and disarm the Hezbollah militias, many voices on Lebanese political landscape opposes the concept. The new military force of 15,000 would replace the now effectively defunct UNIFIL observer force under whose noses the Hezbollah operate with near impunity.

But here's the dilemma. Deploying any United Nations force needs the consent of the host country's sovereign government and the parties to the conflict. Moreover finding troop contributors for a military mission with "robust rules of engagement" means sending combat troops with a risky mission. Not many countries wish to sign up to an enforcement operation where the U.N. blue helmets are not viewed as neutral but are seen as sitting ducks.

Syria, long a supporter of Hezbollah, is said to hold the trump card to "settle" the conflict. A few years ago, Franco/American diplomatic cooperation led to resolution #1559 which forced Syrian occupation forces out of Lebanon. That resolution moreover demanded the disarming of militias such as Hezbollah, which never happened. Syria, who occupied Lebanon for nearly thirty years, yearns to get back to its bailiwick.

The Bush Administration is not willing to deal with the Assad dictatorship in Syria.

Neither are the French who are equally loath to settle with Syria since the shadow of the Damascus regime hangs over the assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafiq Hariri, a personal friend of Jacques Chirac.

Maverick left-wing French politico Jack Lang, a luminary of the Socialist Party popped up in Damascus to float ideas on a political settlement. Lang said "We support French diplomacy, except on one point: We believe we must speak with Syria." He added that "the Syrian president spoke at length of his disappointment at French intransigence."

Lang, who calls himself a "militant for peace" and who extended his hand to the Syrian dictator Bashir Assad, had earlier in the month launched a vulgar TV tirade against George W. Bush, "He's a fanatic and an imbecile," He added of the American president "This guy, after four years, drives this region (Middle East) and the world to chaos."

Lebanon faces an open ended and probably widening conflict unless the diplomats get this situation under control. Finding the framework for a new Franco/American draft resolution and getting it through the Security Council must proceed quickly, lest the momentum towards peace is lost and the inertia towards yet wider conflict becomes unstoppable.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. jjmcolumn@att.net

article from: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/detail.asp?GRP=I&id=87760